You can also read a bit more about the outbreak from Dr. Jeff Master's web-site
Good Tues day morning everyone! I have switch the blog up just a little bit. I am going to try and give you all of your weather tracking tools at the bottom three quarters of the page. The top quarter of the page will be my current thoughts and comments concerning what I am seeing on the models and the latest data.
We had a few showers on Monday - rainfall totals were on the light side. Most areas did pick up at least enough to wet the sidewalks.
Today will bring dry conditions - Wednesday will also be dry.
High temperatures on Tuesday (below) will be near 50 degrees for most of our region both Today and on Wednesday. Thursday we should see temperatures rise well into the 50s.
We will be tracking a new weather system for Thursday. Right now it appears a few showers will spread into the area by Thursday afternoon and evening. Rain should come to an end by Friday morning.
Here is the forecast weather map for Thursday - you can see the green area of precipitation (that will be moving towards our region).
The time stamp on this map would be Thursday afternoon around 2 pm - 4 pm. The precipitation should be moving towards the east through the afternoon hours and should spread into our local counties from west to east.
The blue line that says 32 would be the freezing line - well to our north over northern Illinois. So, I am not concerned about snow or ice from this next storm system. Stormvistawxmodels.com image.
The next storm system of note will arrive around Sunday/Monday. Rain and perhaps some thunderstorms will spread into our region from the southwest. The system may last a few days. There is the potential for some decent rainfall in our region from this event.
A bit soon to make a call on whether or not severe storms will be a concern. Still several days to monitor the track and intensity of this system.
Some of the latest data indicate the area of low pressure moving further south - that might help keep our area out of the severe weather threat zone. Monitoring and will update through the week.
Here is what the GFS is showing for Sunday - the colors represent precipitation. Click image for the full size view. Image is from www.wright-weather.com
Remember that an area of low pressure rotates counter-clockwise. If a low passes to our west or northwest then it pulls warm and moist air northward. Once it moves off to our east then it pulls colder air into our region. This is why it warms up ahead of a cold front in our region and cools down once the front has passed. Assuming the low passes off to our west and north.
If an area of low pressure passes to our south, during the winter months, then we start thinking about colder air in our region and snow or wintry precipitation (not always - but sometimes).
Numbers are still coming in from the severe weather outbreak last week. This outbreak will rank in the top three January outbreaks on record (number of tornadoes). It was an impressive event.
The blue dots on the image below represent wind damage reports. The red dots are tornado reports.
More information on the SPC page - click here
The National Weather Service Office in Paducah, KY is also posting information on the outbreak
Spot NWS forecast for your location (keep in mind that these forecasts on the point and click page are the NWS forecast thoughts - my thoughts are below and/or on my weather Facebook page) -- Click here - then enter your zip code for the most up to date spot forecast from the National Weather Service.
I am not tracking any winter storms. Sorry snow fans!
Perhaps we can keep our eye on next week? Appears at least a better chance for snow and colder temperatures. I believe we will see snow over the next two weeks (after this week). The pattern favors snow. We shall see if it can produce.
Click image for the full size view - that is quite the storm wound up on the GFS model for next Wednesday. Fantasy land for models (meaning the models have little accuracy past a few days). But, we will keep an eye on it.
Image from www.wright-weather.com