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Geneseo Republic - Geneseo, IL
Beau Dodson's weather analysis for the southern Illinois and western Kentucky area.
February 7, 2013: Rain chances Thursday night
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About this blog
By Beau Dodson
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Feb. 6, 2013 12:01 a.m.

February 7, 2013



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Good Thursday morning everyone!  I have made a few changes to the blog.  I am going to try place the weather tracking tools at the bottom three quarters of the page.  The top quarter of the page will be my current thoughts and comments concerning what I am seeing on the models and the latest data.



Rain chances will be on the increase later tonight and tonight as a weather maker moves in from the west/southwest.  Rainfall between today and Friday morning will be in the 0.25"-0.50" range. 











The next significant weather event will be on Saturday night into Sunday afternoon.  Showers and thunderstorms should move into the area from west to east.



It appears that most of the precipitation should end by Sunday night and Monday morning.  It will turn colder behind the cold front - once the precipitation has moved east.



Right now it appears that dew points may not recover enough for a significant severe weather risk.  With that said - there may be a couple of severe thunderstorms in or near the region.  I believe the bigger risk would be further south of our local counties.



Here is the forecast dew point map from the GFS - you can see the higher dew points to our south.  This iimage is from www.wright-weather.com

Typically in the winter I like to see dew points in the 55-60 degree range.  They can be lower if instability is present.  Instability may not be present on Sunday.  



Click image for full size view



 
I will continue to monitor and update as we move forward.



Rainfall with the Sunday/Monday system should be in the 0.40"-0.80" range.  

   
Spot NWS forecast for your location (keep in mind that these forecasts on the point and click page are the NWS forecast thoughts - my thoughts are below and/or on my weather Facebook page) -- Click here - then enter your zip code for the most up to date spot forecast from the National Weather Service.










I am tracking a possible snow event for next week.

This is the latest GFS model showing snow in our region next Tuesday night and Wednesday.  LONG way off - don't get your snow-hopes up just yet.  Stay tuned and we will track it together.

It isn't too soon to do a snow dance.  If you are a snow fan - then  dance away.

This is the GFS model from www.wright-weather.com  

The pink and purple over our region - that would likely be snow.  Storm track and intensity would be key to this event.  Many days to watch it - confidence is low.

Click image for full size view

 

 





 




The longer range is starting to show some colder shots of air after this week.  A couple of storm systems may track south of our region.  This might mean snow for some areas of the south-lands and southeast United States.  A bit early to make a call on storm tracks.  Stay tuned!





For more frequent updates visit my weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.













No major concerns





No major concerns. 






No wild card in today's forecast.

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The forecast for severe or extreme weather
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado.
  

ThursdaySevere weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.

Is there a chance for thunderstorms BELOW severe limits?  A rumble of thunder possible


Tonight:  Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.

Is there a chance for thunderstorms BELOW severe limits? A rumble of thunder possible


Tomorrow:  Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Is there a chance for thunderstorms BELOW severe limits?  No



For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
or 
Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here  



To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here






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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
Thursday - No 

Friday - No

Saturday - No  

Sunday - Monitor 



To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here  Alternative link - click here 














We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site !

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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars.  I have added all of eastern Kentucky, as well.



We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.




Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS ---


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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars?  Here is a video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU





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To view all watches and warnings in IL -  Click Here 

To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here 

To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here

To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here

All other states- Click Here

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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national        map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.

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To view the interactive warning  map - click here.



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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here



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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site.  For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.



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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall in our region.  This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected.  Remember the scale is at the top of the map.



Click the link below - then choose your the time period you are interested in! 



 CLICK HERE FOR THE RAINFALL GRAPHIC - then choose the time frame above the image






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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time.  Those maps can be viewed here.  



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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here 

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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in 

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To view recent records that have been broken - click here 

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Keep in mind that these forecasts on the point and click page are the NWS forecast thoughts - my thoughts are below and/or on my weather Facebook page.



 Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here


We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more!  Click here 


Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms.   Click here to join---





If you are a weather enthusiast then I recommend listening to WeatherBrains each week!  For a more in-depth look at what is happening in meteorology.









Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio.  Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event.  I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau Dodson

McCracken County Office of Emergency Management

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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook

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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here 

To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here 

To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here

To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here

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All other states- Click Here

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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site

http://www.weather.gov/organization.php

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Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site

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